nomination limbo

  I think that the current suspended animation helps Obama. Clearly he has benefited from the media's decision to anoint him. In this regard New Republic has already confirmed what we  witnessed.
    I think until the nomination is fully resolved it is unlikely that the media will help the republican machine propagate their  attacks on Obama  for the fear that it may resurrect the Clinton candidacy which the media uniformly opposes. Witness the extent to which Joe Klein went to cover Obama gaffe on unconditional meetings with Iran.(I think unconditional meetings are fine and I dont buy the Khruschev-Kennedy analogy for the simple reason that Iran is no soviet Union)
   If Clinton was to be completely and definitively out of the picture it is more likely that the republican with their limited resources would try to define Obama and at that stage the media is going to be torn between  their love for Obama and adulation of McCain.
     If the republicans manage to dent Obama in the summer, it is possible that the Supremes may still turn to Hillary at the convention. So  in my analysis the suspended animation helps Obama.
   I also dont see him getting a major bounce once nominated. Despite the faint hope that we nourish for Hillary we are resigned to an Obama nomination and the current polls between Obama and McCain are unlikely to get more favorable for Obama any time soon.



Display:


Re: nomination limbo (none / 0)

Despite the faint hope that we nourish for Hillary we are resigned to an Obama nomination and the current polls between Obama and McCain are unlikely to get more favorable for Obama any time soon.

Sure they are. As soon as Senator Clinton concedes, makes an effort to unify the party, and allows Obama to turn all his firepower on McCain, Obama's standing relative to McCain will improve dramatically. When 80% of the people say the country's on the wrong track and 70% disapprove of the current president, the president's would-be-successor has an almost impossible task. All of this stressing over Obama as the nominee is going to look pretty silly in about 4 months. McCain's hit his ceiling and has nowhere to go but dooooooooooowwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnn!


by RP McMurphy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:26:31 PM EST

Voters could vote for split government (none / 0)

Like they have for most of the last 40 years.  That's my guess.  They don't want to return the Republicans to power but they have too much uncertainty about Obama.


by lombard on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think he'll get a bounce in the early summer (none / 0)

Then, they'll slug it out here and there during the summer and the polls will be close.  He'll get bigger bounce after the convention and McCain will get a big one after his.  I'm guessing the debates won't have a huge effect because the overwhelming majority of voters will be decided (essentially, even if they say they aren't) by that point.   McCain will go into election day with a very small lead and will add a couple of points to that poll lead on election day.  My guess this far out is McCain 52, Obama 48 (of the two party vote).  


by lombard on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:27:16 PM EST

Re: nomination limbo (none / 0)


by CaptainMorgan on Fri May 23, 2008 at 12:14:34 AM EST

I think this is an Ad-Bot (none / 0)


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Fri May 23, 2008 at 01:15:32 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.