nomination limbo
by rocky, Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:04:10 PM EST
I think that the current suspended animation helps Obama. Clearly he has benefited from the media's decision to anoint him. In this regard New Republic has already confirmed what we witnessed.
I think until the nomination is fully resolved it is unlikely that the media will help the republican machine propagate their attacks on Obama for the fear that it may resurrect the Clinton candidacy which the media uniformly opposes. Witness the extent to which Joe Klein went to cover Obama gaffe on unconditional meetings with Iran.(I think unconditional meetings are fine and I dont buy the Khruschev-Kennedy analogy for the simple reason that Iran is no soviet Union)
If Clinton was to be completely and definitively out of the picture it is more likely that the republican with their limited resources would try to define Obama and at that stage the media is going to be torn between their love for Obama and adulation of McCain.
If the republicans manage to dent Obama in the summer, it is possible that the Supremes may still turn to Hillary at the convention. So in my analysis the suspended animation helps Obama.
I also dont see him getting a major bounce once nominated. Despite the faint hope that we nourish for Hillary we are resigned to an Obama nomination and the current polls between Obama and McCain are unlikely to get more favorable for Obama any time soon.
Tags: Polling, Obama bounce, GE, Oppo research (all tags)
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